Bayesian posteriors for arbitrarily rare events
We study how much data a Bayesian observer needs to correctly infer the relative likelihoods of two events when both events are arbitrarily rare. Each period, either a blue die or a red die is tossed. The two dice land on side 1 with unknown probabilities p[subscript 1] and q[subscript 1], which can...
Main Authors: | Fudenberg, Drew (Contributor), He, Kevin (Author), Imhof, Lorens A. (Author) |
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Other Authors: | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Economics (Contributor) |
Format: | Article |
Language: | English |
Published: |
National Academy of Sciences,
2018-01-19T20:28:12Z.
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | Get fulltext |
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