Integrating uncertainty in time series population forecasts: An illustration using a simple projection model
BACKGROUND: Population forecasts are widely used for public policy purposes. Methods to quantify the uncertainty in forecasts tend to ignore model uncertainty and to be based on a single model. OBJECTIVE: In this paper, we use Bayesian time series models to obtain future population estimates wi...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Others |
| Language: | en |
| Published: |
Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
2013
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| Online Access: | http://epub.wu.ac.at/5768/1/29%2D43.pdf http://dx.doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2013.29.43 |