Subjective Probability Interval Estimates: A Simple and Effective Way to Reduce Overprecision in Judgment
Overprecision in judgment is the most robust type of overconfidence, and the one least susceptible to debiasing. It refers to people’s excessive certainty in the accuracy of their estimates, predictions or beliefs. Research on overprecision finds that confidence intervals, estimated ranges that judg...
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| Format: | Others |
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Research Showcase @ CMU
2011
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| Online Access: | http://repository.cmu.edu/dissertations/546 http://repository.cmu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1586&context=dissertations |