Option-Implied Equity Premium Predictions via Entropic Tilting

• Main Authors: Metaxoglou, K. (Author), Pettenuzzo, D. (Author), Smith, A. (Author)
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Oxford University Press 2019
• Subjects: density forecasts; entropic tilting; equity premium; options; variance risk premium
• Online Access: View Fulltext in Publisher

 We propose a new method to improve density forecasts of the equity premium using information from options markets. We obtain predictive densities from stochastic volatility (SV) and GARCH models, which we then tilt using the second moment of the risk-neutral distribution implied by options prices while imposing a non-negativity constraint on the equity premium. By combining the backward-looking information contained in the GARCH and SV models with the forward-looking information from options prices, our procedure improves the performance of predictive densities. Using density forecasts of the U.S. equity premium from January 1990 to December 2014, we find that tilting leads to more accurate predictions using statistical and economic criteria. © 2018 The Author(s), 2018. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: [e-mail].